Chapter 11 Pyramids Found Around The World.pdf
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Atmospheric forcing is also becoming increasingly recognised to be an important factor for the future of the AIS. A sustained (15 days) melt event over the Ross Sea sector of the WAIS in 2016 illustrated both the connectivity of Antarctica to the tropics and El Niño, and the possibility that future meltwater production on ice shelf surfaces could change in the near future (Nicolas et al., 2017487). This was highlighted by Trusel et al. (2015)488, who evaluated the future expansion of surface meltwater using the snow component in the RACMO2 regional atmospheric model (Kuipers Munneke et al., 2012489) and output from CMIP5 GCMs. Under RCP8.5, they found a substantial expansion of surface meltwater production on ice shelves late in the 21st century that exceed melt rates observed before the 2002 collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf. Surface meltwater is important for both ice dynamics and SMB due to its potential to reduce albedo, saturate the firn layer, deepen surface crevasses, and to cause flexural stresses that can contribute to ice shelf break-up (hydrofracturing) (Banwell et al., 2013490; Kuipers Munneke et al., 2014491). The presence of surface meltwater does not necessarily lead to immediate ice shelf collapse (Bell et al., 2017b492; Kingslake et al., 2017493), although surface meltwater was a precursor on ice shelves which have collapsed (Scambos et al., 2004494; Banwell et al., 2013495). This dichotomy illustrates the uncertain role of meltwater and the need for additional study. When and if melt rates will be sufficiently high in future warming scenarios to trigger widespread hydrofracturing is a key question, because the loss of ice shelves is associated with the onset of marine ice sheet instabilities (Cross-chapter Box 8 in Chapter 3). Based on the single modelling study by Trusel et al. (2015)496, it is not expected that widespread ice shelf loss will occur before the end of the 21st century, but due to limited observations and modelling to date, there is low confidence in this assessment.
The quality of surface water resources (in estuaries, rivers, reservoirs, etc.) can be affected by the intrusion of saline water, both in a direct (increased salinity) and indirect way (altered environmental conditions which change the behaviour of pollutants and microbes). In terms of direct impacts, statistical models and long-term (1950 to present) records of salinity show significant upward trends in salinity and a positive correlation between rising sea levels and increasing residual salinity, for example in the Delaware Estuary, USA (Ross et al., 2015). Higher salinity levels, further inland, have also been reported in the Gorai river basin, southwestern Bangladesh (Bhuiyan and Dutta, 2012), and in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. In the Mekong Delta for instance, salinity intrusion extends around 15 km inland during the rainy season and typically around 50 km during dry season (Gugliotta et al., 2017). Importantly, salinity intrusion in these deltas is caused by a variety of factors such as changes in discharge and water abstraction along with relative SLR. More broadly, the impact of salinity intrusion can be significant in river deltas or low-lying wetlands, especially during low-flow periods such as in the dry season (Dessu et al., 2018). In Bangladesh, for instance, some freshwater fish species are expected to lose their habitat with increasing salinity, with profound consequences on fish-dependent communities (Dasgupta et al., 2017). In the Florida Coastal Everglades, sea level increasingly exceeds ground surface elevation at the most downstream freshwater sites, affecting marine-to-freshwater hydrologic connectivity and transport of salinity and phosphorous upstream from the Gulf of Mexico. The impact of SLR is higher in the dry season when there is practically no freshwater inflow (Dessu et al., 2018). Salinity intrusion was shown to cause shifts in the diatom assemblages, with expected cascading effects through the food web (Mazzei and Gaiser, 2018). Salinisation of surface water may lead to limitations in drinking water supply (Wilbers et al., 2014), as well as to future fresh water shortage in reservoirs, for example in Shanghai (Li et al., 2015). Salinity changes the partitioning and mobility of some metals, and hence their concentration or speciation in the water bodies (Noh et al., 2013; Wong et al., 2015; de Souza Machado et al., 2018). Varying levels of salinity also influence the abundance and toxicity of Vibrio cholerae in the Ganges Delta (Batabyal et al., 2016).
These conclusions must be nuanced, first, by the fact that our assessment does not consider either financial or social aspects that can act as limiting factors to the development of adaptation options (Sections 4.4.3 and 4.4.5), for instance, hard engineering coastal defences (Hurlimann et al., 20141505; Jones et al., 20141506; Elrick-Barr et al., 20171507; Hinkel et al., 20181508). However, from a general perspective, these findings suggest that although ambitious adaptation will not necessarily eradicate end-century risk from SLR across all low-lying coastal areas around the world, it will help to buy time in many locations and therefore contribute to developing a robust foundation for adaptation beyond 2100. Second, the future of other climate-related drivers of risk (such as ESL, waves and cyclones; Sections 4.2.3.4.1 to 4.2.3.4.3, 6.3.1.1 to 6.3.1.3) is not fully and systematically included in each risk assessment above, so that much larger risks than assessed here are to be expected.
Coastal protection through hard measures is widespread around the world, although it is difficult to provide estimates on how many people benefit from them. Currently, at least 20 million people living below normal high tides are protected by hard structures (and drainage) in countries such as Belgium, Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Thailand, the UK, and the USA (Nicholls, 2010). Many more people living above high tides are also protected against ESL by hard structures in major cities around the world. There is a concentration of these measures in northwest Europe and East Asia, although extensive defences are also found in and around many coastal cities and deltas. For example, large scale coastal protection exists in Vancouver (Canada), Alexandria (Egypt) and Keta (Ghana; Nairn et al., 19991544) and 6000 km of polder dikes in coastal Bangladesh. Gittman et al. (2015) estimate that 14% of the total US coastline has been armoured, with New Orleans being an example of an area below sea level dependent on extensive engineered protection (Kates et al., 20061545; Rosenzweig and Solecki, 20141546; Cooper et al., 20161547). Defences built and raised for tsunami protection, such as post-2011 in Japan (Raby et al., 20151548), also provide protection against SLR.
In addition to the literature on planning, public participation, conflict resolution and decision making assessed in the last Section, much is being learned from practical experiences gained in adapting to climate change and SLR at the coast. Some salient enabling conditions and lessons learnt are illustrated in Table 4.9 through case studies or examples of real-world experience in diverse coastal communities around the world, structured according to the five overarching SLR governance challenges identified in Section 4.4.3. In these cases, the following stands out as being foundational for enabling the implementation of SLR responses and addressing the governance challenges that arise. First, effective SLR responses take a long-term perspective (e.g., 100 years and beyond) and explicitly account for the uncertainty of locality-specific risks beyond 2050. Second, given the locality-specific but cross-cutting nature of SLR impacts, improving cross-scale and cross-domain coordination of SLR responses may be beneficial. Third, prioritising social vulnerability and equity in SLR responses may be essential because SLR impacts and risks are spread unevenly across society, and within and between coastal communities. Fourth, safe community arenas for working together constructively can help to resolve social conflict arising from SLR. Fifth, a sharp increase may be needed in governance capabilities to tackle the complex problems caused by SLR. There is, however, no one-size-fits-all solution to SLR, and responses need to be tailored to the environmental, social, economic, political, technological, and cultural context in which they are to be implemented. Enablers that work in one context might not be effective in another case. As sea level rises, more experience in addressing SLR governance challenges will be gained, which can in turn be evaluated in order to obtain a better contextual understanding of enabling conditions and effective SLR governance.
Enron division Azurix, slated for an IPO, initially planned to bid between $321 million and $353 million for the rights to operate water system services for areas around Buenos Aires. This was at the high end of what Enron's Risk Assessment and Control Group advised. But as pressure to outbid all others and win the deal grew more intense with the approaching IPO, the Azurix executives decided to up their bid. They eventually bid $438.6 million, which turned out to be about twice as much as the next highest sealed bid. But when Enron executives arrived at the Argentine facilities, they found them in a shambles with all of the customer records destroyed.[43] 153554b96e
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